Powerball — Statistical Analysis

Rigorous frequency tests across 2,061 recorded Powerball draws.

Per-Number Frequency vs. Expected

Each number should appear ~149.3× if the draw is perfectly uniform. Bars outside ±1.5σ are highlighted.

χ² Statistic

195.84

df = 68

p-value

<0.001

Strong signal (p < 0.001)

Expected / Number

149.3

across 2061 draws

Outliers (|z| > 1.5)

20

numbers outside 1.5σ

z > +1.5σ (above expected)
z < −1.5σ (below expected)
within ±1.5σ

Gap Analysis

How many draws pass between consecutive appearances. A fair process follows a geometric distribution (dashed line).

Number:

Appearances

140

Observed mean gap

14.6 draws

Expected mean gap

13.8 draws

1 / (5/69)

Number 35's gap distribution closely matches the theoretical geometric curve — consistent with a fair draw.

Pair Co-occurrence

Expected ~8.8 times per pair by chance. Ratio = observed ÷ expected. Anything above ~1.5× warrants scrutiny.

1
32
49
21 observed2.39×
2
22
32
21 observed2.39×
3
37
39
21 observed2.39×
4
3
16
20 observed2.28×
5
30
48
20 observed2.28×
6
41
59
20 observed2.28×
7
37
44
20 observed2.28×
8
20
39
19 observed2.16×
9
23
47
19 observed2.16×
10
21
32
19 observed2.16×
11
30
59
19 observed2.16×
12
37
53
18 observed2.05×
13
19
21
18 observed2.05×
14
5
28
18 observed2.05×
15
7
24
18 observed2.05×
16
16
58
17 observed1.94×

Blue marker on each bar = expected frequency. Bar extending past the marker = above chance.

Jackpot Size Over Time

Amount per draw — resets to base after a winner.

Methodology

Hot & Cold Numbers

Hot and cold rankings compare each ball’s actual draw count against pure chance.

For each ball we compare its appearance count across every recorded draw in our archive against the count you would expect if every ball were drawn equally often, and express the difference as a z-score — the further from zero, the hotter or colder the number.

The chi-square test at the top of this page checks whether the frequency spread across all numbers is larger than random chance would produce. In a fair lottery you should usually see “no significant bias detected” — hot and cold streaks are exactly what randomness looks like over a few hundred draws.

Remember that every drawing is independent: a cold number is not “due,” and a hot number is not on a roll. These statistics describe history; they cannot predict the next draw.

Key Terms

Hot Number
Drawn more often than the all-ball average across recorded history.
Cold Number
Drawn less often than the all-ball average across recorded history.
Z-Score
How many standard deviations a ball’s draw count sits above or below the expected count.
Chi-Square
A test of whether the overall frequency spread differs from what randomness would produce.